ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN AND ITS DESCRIPTIVE SOLUTIONS??

 

ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN AND ITS DESCRIPTIVE SOLUTIONS?? COMPLETE RESEARCH:

In physics, energy is an indirectly observed quantity. It is often understood as the ability a physical system has to do work on other physical systems. Since work is defined as a force acting through a distance (a length of space), energy is always equivalent to the ability to exert pulls or pushes against the basic forces of nature, along a path of a certain length.

The total energy contained in an object is identified with its mass, and energy (like mass), cannot be created or destroyed. When matter (ordinary material particles) is changed into energy (such as energy of motion, or into radiation), the mass of the system does not change through the transformation process. However, there may be mechanistic limits as to how much of the matter in an object may be changed into other types of energy and thus into work, on other systems. Energy, like mass, is a scalar physical quantity. In the International System of Units (SI), energy is measured in joules, but in many fields other units, such as kilowatt-hours and kilocalories, are customary. All of these units translate to units of work, which is always defined in terms of forces and the distances that the forces act through.

A system can transfer energy to another system by simply transferring matter to it (since matter is equivalent to energy, in accordance with its mass). However, when energy is transferred by means other than matter-transfer, the transfer produces changes in the second system, as a result of work done on it. This work manifests itself as the effect of force(s) applied through distances within the target system. For example, a system can emit energy to another by transferring (radiating) electromagnetic energy, but this creates forces upon the particles that absorb the radiation. Similarly, a system may transfer energy to another by physically impacting it, but in that case the energy of motion in an object, called kinetic energy, results in forces acting over distances (new energy) to appear in another object that is struck. Transfer of thermal energy by heat occurs by both of these mechanisms: heat can be transferred by electromagnetic radiation, or by physical contact in which direct particle-particle impacts transfer kinetic energy.

Energy may be stored in systems without being present as matter, or as kinetic or electromagnetic energy. Stored energy is created whenever a particle has been moved through a field it interacts with (requiring a force to do so), but the energy to accomplish this is stored as a new position of the particles in the field—a configuration that must be "held" or fixed by a different type of force (otherwise, the new configuration would resolve itself by the field pushing or pulling the particle back toward its previous position). This type of energy "stored" by force-fields and particles that have been forced into a new physical configuration in the field by doing work on them by another system, is referred to as potential energy. A simple example of potential energy is the work needed to lift an object in a gravity field, up to a support. Each of the basic forces of nature is associated with a different type of potential energy, and all types of potential energy (like all other types of energy) appears as system mass, whenever present. For example, a compressed spring will be slightly more massive than before it was compressed. Likewise, whenever energy is transferred between systems by any mechanism, an associated mass is transferred with it.

Any form of energy may be transformed into another form. For example, all types of potential energy are converted into kinetic energy when the objects are given freedom to move to different position (as for example, when an object falls off a support). When energy is in a form other than thermal energy, it may be transformed with good or even perfect efficiency, to any other type of energy, including electricity or production of new particles of matter. With thermal energy, however, there are often limits to the efficiency of the conversion to other forms of energy, as described by the second law of thermodynamics.

In all such energy transformation processes, the total energy remains the same, and a transfer of energy from one system to another, results in a loss to compensate for any gain. This principle, the conservation of energy, was first postulated in the early 19th century, and applies to any isolated system. According to Noether's theorem, the conservation of energy is a consequence of the fact that the laws of physics do not change over time.

Although the total energy of a system does not change with time, its value may depend on the frame of reference. For example, a seated passenger in a moving airplane has zero kinetic energy relative to the airplane, but non-zero kinetic energy (and higher total energy) relative to the Earth.

Types of Energy:

In the context of physical sciences, several forms of energy have been defined. These include:

·         Thermal energy, thermal energy in transit is called heat

·         Chemical energy

·         Electric energy

·         Radiant energy, the energy of electromagnetic radiation

·         Nuclear energy

·         Magnetic energy

·         Elastic energy

·         Sound energy

·         Mechanical energy

·         Luminous energy

·         Mass (E=mc²)

These forms of energy may be divided into two main groups;

kinetic energy and potential energy. Other familiar types of energy are a varying mix of both potential and kinetic energy.

Energy may be transformed between these forms, some with 100% energy conversion efficiency and others with less. Items that transform between these forms are called transducers.

The above list of the known possible forms of energy is not necessarily complete. Whenever physical scientists discover that a certain phenomenon appears to violate the law of energy conservation, new forms may be added, as is the case with dark energy, a hypothetical form of energy that permeates all of space and tends to increase the rate of expansion of the universe.

 

Energy Crisis In Pakistan:

An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other natural resources.

The crisis often has effects on the rest of the economy, with many recessions being caused by an energy crisis in some form. In particular, the production costs of electricity rise, which raises manufacturing costs.

For the consumer, the price of gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending, higher transportation costs and general price rising. Energy resources have depleted! Whatever resources are available are simply too expensive to buy or already acquired by countries which had planned and acted long time ago. Nations of the world which have their own reserves are not supplying energy resources anymore; only the old contracts made decades ago are active. Airplanes, trains, cars, motorbikes, buses and trucks, all modes of transportation are coming to a stand still. Many industries have closed due to insufficient power supply. Price of oil has gone above the ceiling. At domestic level, alternate methods like solar, biogas and other methods are being tried for mere survival.

The above is a likely scenario of Pakistan and around the globe after 25 years. A pessimistic view, but realistic enough to think about and plan for the future. But are we doing anything about it? Lets have a look at the current energy situation of Pakistan and the world.

Current Energy Situation In Pakistan:

Pakistan’s economy is performing at a very high note with GDP growing at an exceptional rate, touching 8.35% in 2004-05.In its history of 58 years, there has been only a few golden years where the economy grew above 7%. This year official expectations are that GDP growth rate will be around 6.5 – 7.0%. For the coming years, the government is targeting GDP growth rate above 6%. With economy growing at such a pace, the energy requirements are likely to increase with a similar rate. For 2004-05, Pakistan’s energy consumption touched 55.5 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent).

The energy consumption is expected to grow at double digit if the overall economy sustains the targeted GDP growth rate of 6% by the government. Pakistan’s energy requirements are expected to double in the next few years, and our energy requirements by 2015 is likely to cross 120MTOE. By 2030, the nation’s requirement will be 7 times the current requirement reaching 361MTOE. Pakistan’s energy requirements are fulfilled with more than 80% of energy resources through imports.

One of the major problems facing the new government, the energy crisis, is intense, costly and multi-dimensional. The infuriating electricity and gas disruptions and soaring fuel prices in turn pushing the cost of living have made life difficult for people. The even before it took office the new government was greeted with two jumps in fuel prices, accounting for a 15% rise in two weeks. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have been registering all-time-highs, shooting 40% in the past year. The undeniable reality is that that this global spike will somehow have to be accommodated in energy prices in Pakistan.

There is no quick solution to electricity shortage and the trend of surging prices is irreversible. There is very little the new government can do on this in the immediate term. At best, the problem can be prevented from aggravating until a sustainable solution is struck. Tough decisions will have to be made, and executed with commitment.

The starting point of any remedial efforts should be an acknowledgement of the fact that the crisis is a self-inflicted one. It cannot be denied that something has been wrong down the line that caused this crisis. The country has nearly gone energy bankrupt while a total disaster appears to be round the corner unless pragmatism is shown. It is also important that lessons be learnt from the past mistakes on part of relevant circles. The crisis is still addressable as long as there is due vision and devotion.

 

Causes of Energy Crisis In Pakistan:

One of the major limitations that have hindered energy prosperity in the country is short-sightedness. There has not been a meaningful and coherent energy policy in place over this period. The approach has been “project-oriented,” rather than “goal-oriented.” Almost every regime has dealt with energy on an ad hoc basis. Long-term and sustainable planning of energy have been an alien concept. The reason is fairly simple; energy projects usually require huge investments and commitment, making them undesirable to any regime. The attitude of delaying new projects, as far as possible, has been the common practice and is in fact the recipe of the present crises. In doing so, when things start getting out of control, haphazard and quick-fix measures are sought. A typical example is the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) saga of the 1990s. In an attempt to avert an approaching energy crisis, as a result of negligible capacity addition during the 1980s and the early 1990s, the regime in 1993-94 decided to go for thermal generation through the IPPs. Undoubtedly, the IPPs provided a very healthy contribution at the supply end, enhancing power generation capacity by more than 5000MW. Nevertheless, this power addition cost the country a fortune – apart from the controversial tariff structure, the move was against the spirit of energy sustainability and security for the country. The fact that the IPPs were set up at the terms of the investors suggest that it was a move made in panic.

The last few years provide a perfect example of failure to make a timely response to the growing energy needs. A threefold increase in energy demand over the last two decades has been responded to with an ill-proportioned increment at the supply end. Consequently, with the advent of 2008 the gap between demand and supply grew to 4,500MW indicating a 40% deficit of electricity. The prevalent energy crisis has not appeared overnight — the omens were evident for a number of years but the authorities failed to react in time. Senior WAPDA officials claim that in 2002 the government was officially warned about the approaching electricity crisis and was asked to take immediate measures to enhance generation capacity. The timely warning failed to receive any appreciation. The attitude of the relevant authorities has thus indirectly contributed to the growth of the dire crisis. Another example worth quoting here is that of the 969MW Neelam-Jehlum hydroelectric project. It was to be constructed in 2003 at a cost of $1.5 billion. It got abandoned until the present power crises intensified towards the end of 2007. The revised estimate is around $2.25 billion. The delay is costing the country a fortune – an extra $750 million in terms of project cost, apart from enormous monetary dents inflicted by the five-year delay. It is also noteworthy that WAPDA has traditionally pursued the major projects of national interest but failed to get the due positive response from the policy- and decision- makers. Interestingly, WAPDA plays the role of a scapegoat, because the common man blames WAPDA for his sufferings.

It is also important to plant relevant and qualified people at the key policy and decision making positions. Quite often, these positions are offered to utterly irrelevant, ill-qualified and incompetent people. The track record suggests that energy offices are amongst the most coveted ones in any regime, simply because they are considered to be the most lucrative ones. There are examples when undergraduate and utterly irrelevant people have been appointed to run energy offices. There are also cases when the crucial positions have been used as incentives during political bargaining. The unhealthy attitude towards sensitive energy positions is enough to explain how the field of energy has been traditionally toyed with.

Another aspect of the bankrupt policies is politicization of projects of national interest. The paramount example is that of Kalabagh Dam. It has been politicized to such an extent that its orchestration now appears to be next to impossible. Evidences suggest that the issue has been used to serve the vested interest of regimes and certain political and ethnical forces. With the emerging post-election sense of national reconciliation on the political arena, it is expected that such projects would be looked into with cool heads. It is time to move on. The technical issues, if there be any, have to be addressed on the drawing board, rather in processions. It has to be realized that the delay in project has not only made the country suffer but also people that come from all provinces.

Current Production of Electricity in Pakistan:

Electricity – total installed capacity: 19,505 MW (2007)

Electricity – Sources (2007)

Fossil fuel – 12,580 MW – 65% of total

Hydro – 6,463 MW – 33% of total

Nuclear – 462 MW – 2% of total

There are four major power producers in country: WAPDA (Water & Power Development Authority), KESC (Karachi Electric Supply Company), IPPs (Independent Power Producers) and PAEC (Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission).

The break-up of the installed capacity of each of these power producers (as of June-2008) is as follows:

 

WAPDA Hydral:

Tarbela 3478 MW

Mangla 1000 MW

 Ghazi – Barotha 1450 MW

Warsak 243 MW

 Chashma 184 MW

Dargai 20 MW

Rasul 22 MW

Shadi-Waal 18 MW

Nandi pur 14 MW

Kurram Garhi 4 MW

Renala 1 MW

Chitral 1 MW

Jagran (AK) 30 MW

Total Hydel ==> 6,461 MW

WAPDA Thermal:

   Gas Turbine Power Station, Shahdra                              59 MW 

    Steam Power Station, Faisalabad                            132 MW 

    Gas Turbine Power Station, Faisalabad                      244 MW 

   Gas Power Station, Multan                                  195 MW 

    Thermal Power Station, Muzaffargarh                       1350 MW 

    Thermal Power Station, Guddu                              1655 MW 

    Gas Turbine Power Station, Kotri                           174 MW 

    Thermal Power Station, Jamshoro                            850 MW 

    Thermal Power Station, Larkana                             150 MW 

    Thermal Power Station, Quetta                               35 MW   

    Gas Turbine Power Station, Panjgur                          39 MW 

    Thermal Power Station, Pasni                                17 MW 

 

   Total Thermal                           ==>                4811  MW

 

Ø  WAPDA’s Total Hydel + Thermal capacity is ==> 11,272 MW

Karachi Electric Supply Company

Thermal Power Station, Korangi                                 316 MW 

Gas Turbine Power Station, Korangi                              80 MW 

Gas Turbine Power Station, SITE                                100 MW 

Thermal Power Station, Bin Qasim                              1260 MW

 

Total (KESC) ==> 1756 MW

Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

Hub Power Project                                           1292 MW 

AES Lalpir Ltd, Mahmood Kot Muzaffargar                      362 MW 

AES Pak Gen, Mahmood Kot Muzaffargar                         365 MW 

Altern Energy Ltd, Attock                                     29 MW 

Fauji Kabirwala Power Company, Khanewal                      157 MW 

Gul Ahmad Energy Ltd, Korangi                                136 MW 

Habibullah Coastal Power Limited                             140 MW 

Japan Power Generation, Lahore                               120 MW 

Kohenoor Energy Limited, Lahore                              131 MW 

Liberty Power Limited, Ghotki                                232 MW 

Rousch Power, Khanewal                                       412 MW   

Saba Power Company, Sheikhupura                              114 MW 

Southern Electric Power Company Limited, Raiwind             135 MW 

Tapal Energy Limited, Karachi                                126 MW 

Uch Power Limited, Dera Murad Jamali, Nasirabad              586 MW 

Attock Gen Limited, Morgah Rawalpindi                        165 MW 

Atlas Power, Sheikhupura                                     225 MW   

Engro Energy Limited, Karachi                                —– MW 

Kot Addu Power Company Limited (Privatized)                 1638 MW

Total (IPPs) 6365 MW

Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission

KANUPP                                                       137 MW 

CHASNUPP-1                                                   325 MW

 

Total (Nuclear) ===> 462 MW

Hydel electricity generated by WAPDA varies between two extremities, i.e., between minimum of 2,414 MW and maximum of 6,761 MW depending upon the river flow.

Total Power Generation Capacity of Pakistan (including all sources) is 19,855 MW and the electricity demand (as of April 2010) is 14,500 MW and PEPCO is merely generating 10,000 MW.

Electricity production

 

Electricity – production: 88.42 TW h (2005)

Electricity – production by source (2003)

fossil fuel: 63.7% of total

hydro : 33.9% of total

nuclear : 2.4% of total

Solution:

Pakistan is in the grip of a serious energy crisis that is affecting all sectors of the economy and the various segments of the society. As the situation stands to-day, there are hardly any immediate solutions to resolve the issue. A change of attitude and a change of life style is needed at the national level which should be triggered by the ruling elite and followed by all segments of the society that have access to electricity. At best there could be some short and long-term solutions to the crisis but they need immediate planning and execution with an enormous investment.

Two key elements of a possible solution are: change of attitude and change in lifestyles.

The current energy consumption trends in Pakistan are extremely inefficient, whether it be in the domestic, industrial, trade or commercial sectors. With minimal effort, well over ten per cent of national electricity can be saved by applying only the first level of energy conservation that is a change in attitude. It is simple, instant and effective and all it requires is a stop to using energy unnecessarily.

Leaving lights and home appliances on even when they are not being used is a common practice in our society. Similarly, many businesses such as shops dealing in cloth and garments, jewellery, cosmetics, home appliances and electronics are usually extravagantly lit. It is commonly observed that shops that could do with two or three 40-watt tube lights to meet the desired level of luminance use as many as 15 to 20 tubes. Not only does this increase power consumption, it also generates heat and makes the environment uncomfortable.

A further economy of 10-15 per cent can be achieved by introducing the second level of energy-conservation practices, especially in industry. Collectively, just through public education. With the help of effective electronic and print media campaigns the government can quickly educate the masses.

The second part of the solution is a change in lifestyles. The nation has to draw a clear line between necessities (lighting, fans, TVs, computers, etc ) and luxuries (air conditioners, microwaves, etc) . There is not enough electricity to meet both requirements.

We should utilize daylight as possible, and our government has already taken steps about it. An early start and early end is recommended rather than having opening hours from afternoon until late at night. Air-conditioning, usually a sign of a luxurious lifestyle, needs to be ped. Bearing in mind that a typical domestic AC consumes far more electricity in one hour than a fan does over 24 hours, air conditioning should not be allowed except for sensitive applications such as hospitals and research centers.

The ruling class should lead by example in matters of power conservation. If it does so the common man will follow suit. It is time for the elite to take energy-saving initiatives like abandoning the use of central air conditioning, travelling by special flights and irrelevant use of official transport.

If implemented they can not only avoid the collapse of a bankrupt energy infrastructure but also ensure progress. The bottom line is, in order to safely get through the current energy crisis the nation has to differentiate between its necessities and its luxuries.

Pakistan is rich in hydro resources of energy. According to an estimate the country has enough resources to generate approximately 40000 mw of hydro-electricity. However, presently it only generates 8000 mw of electricity against an installed capacity of 11327 mw. In addition the country can generate electricity with the help of wind and solar energy which has not yet been exploited to meet the energy deficit. Nuclear energy is yet another source of energy and at present PAEC produces 472 mw. It is far less than what PAEC should have been producing to meet the energy deficit.

Thermal power is mostly produced by burning either natural gas or imported oil. The country is yet to switch over to coal from the indigenous source of energy that is estimated to be the third largest in the world with a reserve of 33.0 trillion tons.

If load shedding is still unavoidable despite all these measures, WAPDA/KESC should organize the cuts in a sensible way to cause minimum discomfort. Load shedding schedules should be properly planned and announced.

The reasons behind energy crisis are poor management, lopsided priorities and lack of accountability on part of those who stay at the helm of affairs. We must try our best to adopt energy conservation as individual and at national level.

Analysis:

In order to tackle the existing crisis and ensure a prosperous energy future, the backbone of the future energy policies would have to be reliance on domestic resources (hydropower, coal and solar and wind energy) and energy conservation. Decisions on energy projects should revolve around national interest rather than naïve political and personal gains. Energy offices should be run by qualified, committed and deserving people equipped with due mandate. Relevant ministries and departments should also be overhauled.